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CHARTS AND TESTIMONIALS
Strong support/resistance range here on USDCHF, took a fair bit longer than expected, lots of consolidation patches and a short lived rally from the USD manufacturing data earlier on in the week which set a few pairs back. DXY broke support, EURUSD broke resistance and today out of nowhere gold dumped for the third downside wave just before month end! Slow markets today and yesterday due to thanksgiving, back to usual on Monday!
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This hit me quite hard, I was reading through an online course and saw this, so thought I'd pinch it and pass it on, this definitely applied to me! Starting was the hardest part... where do I start, what do I need to start, what do I read, where do I practice? All these questions, but the first part and the hardest part for the vast majority is just making a start, regardless of what it is. This is where small goals and to-do lists come in handy, setting out small tasks to build confidence and momentum, visually writing down a few tasks each day and completing them gives you a sense of satisfactory and confidence and gives you the motivation to want to do more and learn more. If it's truly a passion, things will unfold the way they should naturally off the back of your interest and motivation and once you're in flow, it's like a snowball effect, things keep growing and getting better!
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Never one to hold cash, but thatβs the last of the dodgy builder payments paid ππ.
Finally all the big renovation expenses are out the way, itβs nice to see my bank balance change from a red candle stick to a green one, not a fan of drawdown π€£π€£.
Will provide some pictures of the house soon or put up a story highlight if anyone is interested! Full focus on charts to close this final Q4 out. 2020 has been a solid year so far, considering... I hope it has for you guys too! Always learning, always earning!
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Had our eyes on AUDUSD all morning, we had this pair covered in our FREE TELEGRAM group for those of you that aren't in it already, you can join via the link in our bio. We followed the break, we followed the retest, but pullbacks exceeded the previous s/r zone and the hourly dipped below almost invalidating the trade. Once we saw PA confirmation, the RR to previous tops wasn't quantifiable enough to meet our rule set and execute.
We usually have a couple if not 3 similar pairs which we follow, so we can effectively pick the best out of the bunch. GBPUSD was bang on our 1.33 handle (second retest) and also acting as previous S/R. Took a trade with super tight stops, which proved to be a sniper entry, literally 0 drawdown and risk free within 15 minutes. Really need to break that high sequence to see further upside potential, the previous trend sequence set a lower high...
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Discount already applied to the website, check out the below.
Grab our monthly membership for just Β£1! Includes a free teaser course too!
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People always say, donβt try and catch the bottom of the move because the probability is unlikely. But you can always wait for the break (confirmation) and retest (entry) to increase probability. You just have to be aware that we wonβt always pullback you the anticipated zone and you have to be prepared to sit on the sideline if the opportunity doesnβt completely arise, donβt be a victim of FOMO. A quick minute long video explaining what a 2 stage reversal looks like. Steps are as followed:
- Find a support zone;
- Anticipate a failed lower low;
- Await breakout (higher high);
- Await retest (higher low);
- Calculate RR & rule set;
- Execute trade.
Itβs really as simple as that (trading made simple, eh) the breakout is effectively the change in trend, the retest is effectively a corrective wave in which we look to get involved with.
Hopefully this video helps! If so, we will try and push some more out! Let me know what you think!
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Got a good little video on this that Iβll run by you guys tomorrow. Basically the video commentary of whatβs happened here with the reversal on DXY and subsequent EURUSD rejection of 1.19. The video will explain much more and better detail! Classic 2-stage, clear and clean as you like! Hereβs a before and after.
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Most commonly retail traders will use candlesticks or bars, but do you understand what the data contained within the candlesticks mean? The first image shows the actual candlestick structure which includes data points such as:
- The opening price
- The closing price
- The high price
- And the low price
Typically timeframes range from 1 minute all the way up to 1 month, now it's important to understand the higher the timeframe, the more data that is contained within that candlestick, therefore there is less chance of last minute noise to manipulate the candlestick close price. It's the same as support and resistance, the higher timeframes take precedence over the lower timeframes. Price action to us if a form of confluence, we stack price action with support or resistance levels, key levels, whole numbers, breakout highs/lows to give us a better probability of our analysis playing out, once we see responses to these zones/confluence areas, we react, calculate our trade and then execute and let the markets play it's part as we have already done ours!
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Time to say goodbye to this beauty, bought it for Β£6,100 a little less than a year ago, selling it back to the jewellers I bought it from for Β£6,700. 10% gain in around 10 months. Theyβre going for Β£7,500-Β£8,000 for private sale, itβs just very hard to find a buyer, plus you need to less sales fees and transaction costs etc (eBay/shipping/PayPal). Making money off a luxury, crazy! All you have to do is keep it in good condition and boxed when itβs not being worn! Plus you get to flex a Rolex off to everyone at the same time, absolute win/win! Im keeping my date just 41mm, the bracelets incredible. Iβm thinking maybe try and grab a discontinued Hulk, these should appreciate the most as the supply drops over the years! Submariner swap! Absolutely love watches, watches and cars! Real luxuries, just a shame cars depreciate ππ
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Nice but daily break and retest being seen on NZDCAD, the daily structure is the bottom setup, the top setup is the H1, looking to see a test of 0.89800 on the daily, a nice wick rejection would be great and then a close above 0.90... this would then sit nicely with our 3 point confluences. Breakout high, 0.90 whole number handle and support/resistance zone, buying from support. We also meet the requirements for RR, risk on markets have served NZD and AUD nicely!
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Really important points to note, and it all boils down to psychology and emotional control, too many people expect far too much too soon. New traders often fail because they have the completely wrong mind set and canβt manage their emotions, other distractions is a big drawback too, this could be financial circumstances, free time, other commitments etc. Planning and preparation is key!
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Weekly watchlist video has now been put together and you can watch this via YouTube, check out our story to use the swipe up function. Lots of break and retest pairs formed towards the end of last week which we are looking to capitalise on this week. Huge moves seen off the back of the risk headlines last week. Pfizer vaccination caused an eruption to the markets, Gold down $110/oz /1100 pips, equity markets up nicely, big strength seen on ***YEN and ***CHF pairs, as you'd expect from safe haven offloading! GBP started the week strong last week too, with Barnier stating he was optimistic with the this weeks outlook. As the week unfolded, a Brexit deal unfortunately didn't, fisheries still being a clear sticking point. Lets see what this week brings, any comments are welcome! Hope you all have a great trading week ahead!
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I've got a video that I want to post on this pair, just haven't got round to putting a thumbnail together, but for those that read the captions and the trading tips posts, here is two examples of entry points on a trading pair using both an impulsive entry point and price action entry point.
The first option (top picture) shows a greater RR, we place our stoploss just above the previous high and above the resistance zone. By entering impulsively we need to understand the following:
- Less Drawdown Potential
- Tighter Stoploss & Further TP
- Greater Risk:Reward
- Quicker Potential to Make Risk Free
- Less Confirmation of Selling Pressure
The second option (bottom picture) shows a daily price action confirmation, a nice wick beyond resistance, but a close beneath or there or there about... By entering after price action confirmation, we need to understand the following:
- Greater drawdown potential
- Larger Stoploss & Further TP
- Reduced Risk:Reward
- Slower Potential to Make Risk Free
- Greater Confirmation of Selling Pressure
These are the basic considerations for trading impulsively against waiting for price action confirmation, this combined with the nature of the trading pair, the aggressiveness of the moves and how volatile the pair is to trading data and news!
The consideration and judgement is to your discretion, sacrifice confirmation for greater RR?
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You will perform better and learn faster with less distractions and burdens holding you down. Now this can be anything from financial distractions to household distractions, it's really important to have a clear mind, a blank canvas and an open approach to trading.
Of course, this can be assisted by using someone who has been there and done that, they can share experiences and things you can expect to come across during your trading journey, it's all about preparing yourself for what's to come. And being realistic in your approach, you can't class 'trading' as a stream of income, until you're sustainably profitable. Too many people come to financial markets who have been misled and expect to make money instantly following signals/tips/alerts, when realistically its a skill/craft that you need to learn for yourself.
And to learn, you need to be aware of what's to come, what to expect and prepare yourself accordingly, distractions and psychological burdens can hinder that mindset, and from the start you're already at a disadvantage.
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Big moves seen once again today,
GBPCHF is on the screen on the laptop if youβre eyes are good enough to spot that! GBP started strong this week with optimistic Barnier stating some βkey pointsβ to assist with unlocking a Brexit deal. Gains corrected today somewhat after hearing the deadline is once again being pushed back. The tables have turned once again and now we are sitting on the back foot after an optimistic start to the week, bloody fisheries!!
Donβt judge for having the Christmas tree up so early, itβs new so needed to get it out and see if it was as expected, then we decided to just keep it up haha. Nice to be able to move around the house a bit and use all the space now we are nearing the end of the renovation works. Laptop in-front of the TV is certainly comfortable!
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Here we have USDCHF & GBPCHF, a couple of risk related trades. Have a read of the below...
USDCHF D1 - Carried forward from last week, big daily S/R structure here, seen the downside break, looking for the subsequent retest and to find resistance at circa 0.90400. No stacked confluences here, just a simple break and retest of daily S/R, daily candlestick confirmation would be a must. Probably be more inclined to use this pair as a comparison pair, to see if there is anything else similar which offer more confluences.
GBPCHF H4 - Another CHF quote pair here, and again a very similar structure to USDCHF, sideways range bound setup. The easiest trades to quantify and identify. Don't fix it unless it's broken right? I was saying this last week, just need to be cautious of Brexit, EU/UK related headlines this week as always, but a range which has held effectively for a substantial amount of time.
We will be following these closely this week!
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Here are a few captions from some of our trading tips posts, we also mention these points probably on a daily basis within our technical rundown videos. Itβs so important to stay focused, stay regimented, systematic and most importantly remain disciplined and in control. You can aid focus, discipline and emotional control by the decisions you choose each and every day. Take on less and manage it better. Less is more is applicable to so many aspects and elements of trading!
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Looking forward to this week being over, always following the markets but cautious of risk on sentiment and getting caught out due to volatile political events. Looking forward to this being all over, itβs all looking very clear from yesterday throughout today. So letβs see what these weekend headlines bring and subsequent market gaps, ready for the start of a new week! Hope everyone has a restful weekend!
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An example of basic and easy to identify zone trading, extremely lucrative RR opportunity with further potential highs after breaking first TP. Just something I thought I'd share because of how textbook the S/R zone is, I'll provide a little bit of commentary on it too.
This isn't a trade we personally took, infact we have barely traded this week because of the elections, markets are very one sided since the voting kicked off, USD downside massively, Gold breaking new highs and resistance zones...
AUD and NZD markets on that gain, classic risk on/off market sentiment from Tuesday. Simple stuff here though, quite a strong support resistance zone that's held as support and resistance on multiple occasions, the RR meets 1:6, unfortunately was just a little short from support retest price. Now we have set new highs, we could expect a further rally since breaking above 0.88600 towards possibly 0.89400. As one zone breaks and retest, we target the next zone above, scale out appropriately and trial stops below broken and completely retest highs (or lows).
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Check out this post, but make sure to refer to trading tip 48 and 47 too. Theyβre all part in parcel!
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